Report As early as 1991, NATO allies declared that the consolidation and preservation throughout the continent of democratic societies and their freedom from any form of coercion or intimidation are therefore of direct and material concern to us.31Partnership with the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Statement, North Atlantic Council Meeting in Ministerial Session in Copenhagen, June 6-7, 1991, NATO Online Library, https://www.nato.int/docu/comm/49-95/c910607d.htm. The comparison of monomeric and dimeric diphtheria toxin (DT) reveals a mode for protein association which we call domain swapping. . More recently, President Donald Trump questioned whether Washington should defend the tiny and aggressive small country of Montenegro, NATOs latest admitted member.21Amanda Macias and Tucker Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro Could Result in World War III, CNBC, June 18, 2018, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/18/trump-defending-nato-ally-montenegro-could-result-in-world-war-3.html. America's Entangling Alliances offers a corrective to long-held assumptions about US foreign policy and is relevant to current public and academic debates about the costs and benefits of America's allies. Thus, if simple models of a division of labor between Europeans and Americans in case of major war accurately reflect the complex realities of how such crises would unfold, Europeans should expect to take up more defense responsibilities for the defense of the continent, whatever the scenario. Imperialism was an encouragement for militarism to take place because it created a . In 1914, Italy remained neutral by claiming that Germany's war against France was an 'aggressive' one. Using Quad to Build Indo-Pacific NATO,Hindu, October 13, 2020, https://www.thehindu.com/news/ international/china-fm-calls-us-indo-pacific-strategy-a-huge-security-risk/article32844084.ece. Even US-New Zealand defense cooperation is now being rejuvenated after decades of neglect.68United States | New Zealand Council, Washington Declaration on Defense Cooperation, US|NZ Council website, June 19, 2012, http://usnzcouncil.org/ us-nz-issues/washington-declaration/. 1 (2014), https://direct.mit.edu/isec/article-abstract/39/1/7/12289/The-Lessons-of-1914-for-East-Asia-Today-Missing?redirectedFrom=fulltext; and Richard N. Rosecrance and Steven E. Miller, eds.,The Next Great War? Since 1945, however, there have been only five cases of what might be characterized as U.S. entanglementthe 1954 and 1995-96 Taiwan Strait crises, the Vietnam War, and the interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990sand even these cases are far from . 59, Pacific Forum International, December 22, 2021, https://mailchi.mp/pacforum/pacnet-59-jaukus-and-the-emerging-clash-of-alliances-in-the-pacific-1172630?e=5ea77c93b0. Still, the unprecedented contemporary web of alliances leaves many questions open as to how it would operate in wartime. Entangling Alliances. significance: a cause of WWI. There is no need for complacency. The alliances system meant that a local conflict could easily result into an intimidating global one. entangling definition: 1. present participle of entangle 2. to cause something to become caught in something such as a net. Intra-European defense solidarity was further reinforced by two new bilateral defense clauses: one between Germany and France through the Aachen Treaty of 2019 (which includes a particularly strong mutual commitment), and another between Greece and France through a strategic partnership agreement signed in 2021.35John Psaropoulous, Greece Ratifies Landmark Intra-NATO Defence Pact with France,Al Jazeera(website), October 7, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/ news/2021/10/7/greece-ratifies-intra-nato-defence-pact-with-france. Since the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Seas entered into force in 1994, many states have made irreconcilable claims regarding their territorial waters as well as economic exclusion zones (EEZs, which are not part of national territories but where national forces are often present). It is also noteworthy that the US nuclear umbrella has been discreetly expanded in the past decade. John Hocevar: The structure of PPE will make it particularly hazardous . It must also leave enough room of maneuver to the protector. The North Atlantic Treaty, April 4, 1949. In fact, standing alliances are proliferating (increasing in numbers), widening (welcoming new members), and deepening (reinforcing solidarity and cooperation). The treaty of mutual cooperation and security between Japan and the United States, January 19, 1960. Treaty of Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation between the States of the Arab League, June 17, 1950, Russia and North Korea Sign Friendship Treaty,. This dynamic will increase as both neoimperial behaviors develop and as the scope of contested spaces expandsat sea, in cyberspace, and in outer space. America's Entangling Alliances offers a corrective to long-held assumptions about US foreign policy and is relevant to current public and academic debates about the costs and benefits of America's allies. Partnership with the Countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Statement, North Atlantic Council Meeting in Ministerial Session in Copenhagen, June 6-7, 1991, NATO Online Library. 4 (2000), https://www.jstor.org/stable/174649. Then there are more complex cases. A definitive answer may be impossible to arrive at, but evidence suggests that the current proliferation of alliances is, on balance, more stabilizing to world order than not. 2020-35, December 2020, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3748392. 2 (Summer 2020), https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/SSQ/documents/Volume-14_Issue-2/Thrall.pdf. President Macron famously wondered whether the Alliance was in danger of brain death.22Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-dead,Economist, November 7, 2019, https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/ emmanuel-macron-warns-europe-nato-is-becoming-brain-dead. Branislav Miko, NATO between Exclusivity and Inclusivity: Measuring NATOs Partnerships, Czech Journal of International Relations 56, no. US alliances were successfully tested in 2001. Then there is the canonical Greece-Turkey scenario, which has gained plausibility over the past few years as Ankara has become increasingly assertive in its maritime neighborhood. An alliance is a political, military or economic agreement, negotiated and signed by two or more nations. Good alliances are made of strong, capable partners. This has rendered them capable of confronting the reemergence (Russia) or growth (North Korea, China) of perceived threats, or to be the vehicle for dealing with new ones such as terrorism. Expert Alexander Lanoszka calls the South-East Asia Treaty a zombified alliance. See Alexander Lanoszka,Military Alliances in the Twenty-First Century(London: Polity Press, 2022), 176. Military alliances usually contain promises that in the event of war or aggression, signatory nations will support their allies. Two Asian countries that are members of the Manila Pact are also covered by other US commitments (the Philippines by treaty, Thailand through the Rusk-Thanat Communiqu of 1962). The Trump administration also bolstered its commitment to the Philippines, making it clear that an attack against Filipino forces in the South China Sea would be covered by the 1951 treatya stance that was affirmed by the Biden administration; the two countries are currently discussing a possible modification of the existing treaty.40Renato De Castro, Washingtons Changing Position on the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty, BusinessWorld, September 28, 2021, https://www.bworldonline.com/washingtons-changing-position-on-the-1951-mutual-defense-treaty/; and Associated Press, US, Philippines Assessing Defense Treaty, China Wary, September 30, 2021, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/rest-of-world/us-philippines-assessing-defense-treaty-china-wary/articleshow/86651005.cms. (Then again, those including nuclear powers are rarely tested either.) Allies return the favor when they participate in operations led by their protector, for instance in the Middle East and Central Asia for the United States, or in the Sahel for France. one country would declare war on another but an ally wouldn't like it so he would declare war of the other. A scenario involving the defense of Saudi Arabia could also have repercussions in South Asia given the closeness of defense relations between Riyadh and Islamabad. Michael Beckley as quoted by Adam Taylor, Map: The US is Bound by Treaty to Defend a Quarter of Humanity,, See Jeffrey Lewis and Bruno Tertrais, Beyond The Red Line: The United States, France, and Chemical Weapons in the Syrian War, 2013-2018,. Finally, the reinforcement of defense arrangements may reflect the post-1990 maturation of regional organizations, as was the case in Europe and to a lesser extent in Africa. Alan K. Henrikson The Balkan peninsula was that of great importance due to its territorial and economic . And if war erupted somewhere, what would be the risks of escalation? Most of the time, they do not compel allies to use military force, and where applicable they mention national restrictions such as the constitutional provisions and processes (US-Japan) or the specific character of the security and defense policy of certain member States (Treaty on European Union, or TEU88This is known as the Irish clause and is designed to accommodate the specific policies of Austria, Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Malta, and Sweden. Beginning in the late 19th century, the social unrest in the Balkan States became the focal point of many European powers. Whatever the outcome of the Russian invasion, NATO will likely have to provide some form of security guarantees for the Ukraine that emerges on the other side. Defensive alliances are not always upheld: a recent academic analysis found that they are honored only 41 percent of the time.116Molly Berkemeier and Matthew Fuhrmann, Reassessing the Fulfillment of Alliance Commitments in War,Research & Politics5, no. Author Jason W. Davidson examines these alliances to shed light on their nature and what they reveal about the evolution of American power. US nuclear weapons thus protect some fifty countries, or about one-quarter of the worlds total. ensnare. A legitimate question mark could exist for Turkish behavior in recent years, but given the tensions between Ankara and its alliesnotably the United Statesit is unlikely that It played a role. It was not a given either that the US-Saudi defense relationship would have survived 9/11 and Jamal Khashoggis murder, or that the US-Turkey alliance would survive the acquisition by Ankara of modern Russian air defense systems. Bruno Simma et al., Third Edition (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2013), 1409. Reuters, Inconceivable Australia Would Not Join US to Defend Taiwan: Australian Defence Minister, November 13, 2021, Japan, Australia Sign Defense Pact to Counter Chinas Rise,. After three decades of absence, France rejoined NATOs military command structure in 2009. Modern alliances are defensive in nature and, as a result, are more resilient and durable than aggression-oriented pacts of the distant past. NATO Public Diplomacy Division, NATO Audience Research: Presummit Polling Results 2021, June 11, 2021. That is unreasonable. the same time we are warned by the admonitions of history and the voice of our own beloved Washington to abstain from entangling alliances with foreign nations. Dec 7, 2021, By Catastrophes, when they come, are often the product of misperceptions. Causes of WW1: Franco-Russian Alliance. Importantly, Alliance members have also made it clear that beyond terrorism, other forms of nontraditional aggression, in cyberspace (2014) as well as to, from, or within outer space (2021) could qualify as an armed attack and trigger Article 5.29Wales Summit Declaration Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Wales, September 5, 2014, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm; and Brussels Summit Communiqu Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Brussels, June 14, 2021, https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm. Yet this is increasingly a problem at sea. also one of the causes that made Britain explode (Britain was a powder keg at the time). Davidson's definition of neoclassical realism is that the theory "argues that in an anarchic international system, states' behavior is driving by the distribution . Recent spats between Turkey and its allies have led many wondering whether Ankara would, or should, remain a member of NATO. This is the case for Gulf countries, for instance, or for the aforementioned Greece-France security partnership. Members of its sister organizations, the Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), and the South African Development Community (SADC), signed their own Mutual Assistance Pact for the former (in 2000), and a Mutual Defense Pact for the latter (2003). The result is a network of interlocking defense relationships, to which an ever-thicker layer of new security groupings and quasi alliances is being added. The alliance system is a mutually beneficial formal agreement between two or more nations, which can be economic, political or military in nature. There are now separate Australia-Japan-US and Korea-Japan-US defense forums.67US Department of Defense, Australia-Japan-United States Defense Ministers Meeting Joint Statement, July 7, 2020, https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2266901/australia-japan-united-states-defense-ministers-meeting-joint-statement/; and Japanese Ministry of Defense, JapanRepublic of Korea-United States Trilateral Ministers Meeting Joint Press Statement, November 17, 2019, https://www.mod.go.jp/en/d_act/exc/area/docs/2019/20191117_j-kor.html. I will compress them within the narrowest compass they will bear, stating the general principle, but not all its limitations.Equal and exact justice to all men, of whatever state or persuasion, religious or political:peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations, entangling alliances with none:the support of the state . This shift was confirmed by the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review.46US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report, 2010, https://dod.defense.gov/News/Special-Reports/NPR/; and US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review, 2018, https://dod.defense.gov/News/SpecialReports/2018NuclearPostureReview.aspx. So instead we seek out allies, even among strangers and wives, fellow patients who, if . Today, the US administration is expanding and consolidating these links seeking to build a latticework of alliances and partnerships globally that are fit for purpose for the twenty-first century.79A Conversation With Jake Sullivan, Council on Foreign Relations, December 17, 2021, https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-jake-sullivan. It may produce a different kind of stability than the bloc-to-bloc one of the Cold War. To this list can be added Taiwan, the Gulf States, as well as Israelcountries that do not benefit from treaty-based commitments but for which repeated and explicit statements by US presidents amount to de facto security guarantees.17Neither Israel nor the United States was ever interested in forging a true defense pact. . The Russia-Belarus alliance has grown even stronger, with Minsk having amended its constitution in order to allow it to host nuclear weapons.55Belarus Referendum Approves Proposal to Renounce Nonnuclear Status, Reuters, February 27, 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/launchpad-russias-assault-ukraine-belarus-holds-referendum-renounce-non-nuclear-2022-02-27/. A few years later, in 2011, Turkey and Azerbaijan concluded a defense pact.59Shahin Abbasov, Azerbaijan-Turkey Military Pact Signals Impatience With Minsk Talks: Analysts, Eurasianet (news site), January 18, 2011, https://eurasianet.org/azerbaijan-turkey-military-pact-signals-impatience-with-minsk-talks-analysts. Four former NATO chiefs gathered at the Atlantic Council to weigh in on the Alliances response to the war in Ukraine, enlargement, and the next plays in its playbook. In both cases, however, clarifications were given by the protector. 6 (2018), Fondation pour la Recherche Stratgique, https://www.frstrategie.org/web/documents/publications/recherches-etdocuments/2018/201806.pdf. Definition. While the United States has the largest number of inherited security commitments that persist to this day, there are several others worth considering. Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Republic of the Philippines, August 30, 1951. 3 (2012): 674, https://www.montesquieu-instituut.nl/9353262/d/Kochenov%20EU%20Law%20in%20 the%20Overseas.pdf. The Danger of Entangling Alliances. North Korean, Iranian and, to some extent, Turkish foreign policies have also contributed to various states seeking new defense partnerships for mutual protection. In case of a conflict in East Asia, the probability that allies would be directly pulled into combat operations is low (except perhaps for the case of South Korea, due to the aforementioned 1953 commitments by sixteen countries to defend the peace on the peninsula). Shahin Abbasov, Azerbaijan-Turkey Military Pact Signals Impatience With Minsk Talks: Analysts, Eurasianet (news site), January 18, 2011, Vassilis Nedos, Greece, UAE Commit to Mutual Defense Assistance,, US Department of State, Major Non-NATO Ally Status, Fact Sheet, Aaron Mehta, Finland, Sweden, and US Sign Trilateral Agreement, with Eye on Increased Exercises,. They are often seen as quasi-alliances even though they do not entail any defense commitments. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has been described as a new Warsaw Pact or Eastern NATO.127Vali Kaleji, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization Is No New Warsaw Pact or Eastern NATO,National Interest, November 13, 2021, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/shanghai-cooperation-organization-no-%E2%80%98new-warsaw%E2%80%99-or-%E2%80%98easternnato%E2%80%99-196138. There was a variety of causes that influenced the beginning of World War I, but the primary causes consisted of three major crisis areas which eventually led to the creation of World War I: Balkan nationalism, entangling alliances, and militarism as welll as the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand. such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force. The TEUs Article 42.7 reads: shall have towards it an obligation of aid and assistance by all the means in their power. Note also that the former refers to armed attack and the latter to armed aggression. Whether this is a production of the French translation or a deliberate broadening is debated. This excludes US partnerships with major non-NATO allies, a badly named category of arrangements designed to facilitate security assistance and arms transfers but that does not entail any defense commitment to the designated country.9US Department of State, Major Non-NATO Ally Status, Fact Sheet, Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, January 20, 2021, https://www.state.gov/major-nonnato-ally-status/. The most egregious cases of U.S. overreach, however, have stemmed not from entangling alliances, but from the penchant of American leaders to define national interests expansively, to overestimate . i. Reputation does matter when explaining choices made by US administrations.110Frank P. Harvey and John Mitton,Fighting for Credibility. Amanda Macias and Tucker Higgins, Trump Says Defending Tiny NATO Ally Montenegro Could Result in World War III, CNBC, June 18, 2018, Emmanuel Macron Warns Europe: NATO Is Becoming Brain-dead,. Entrapment is a form of undesirable entanglement. See Tongfi Kim, Why Alliances Entangle but Seldom Entrap States,Security Studies20, no. While their NATO memberships dampen the risk of a full-blown war between them, the United States has been less willing to play a mediating role than it did during the Cold War.126Likewise, an improbable, but not farfetched, scenario calling for Washington to play a mediating role could involve South Korea and Japan. Report No threat to your Kingdom could occur which would not be a matter of immediate concern to the United States. See President Truman to King Abdul Aziz Ibn Saud of Saudi Arabia, 711.56386A/103050,Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, V, The Near East, South Asia, and Africa, https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/ frus1950v05/d658. Washington's admonition to Americans to avoid foreign entanglements stemmed from his own personal experience. What does entangling expression mean? (Read James Baker's Britannica essay on isolationism.) Significance: Entangling Alliances one of the five reason of World War 1. US Department of State, US Collective Defense Arrangements, (Treaty Affairs, Archived Content 2009-2017. US attitudes have also led to consolidation of military ties between its own allies and friends, either to diversify security portfolios or to hedge against US retrenchmentinternal hedging, given that all the actors belong to the same US-led alliance system. One of those good founding principles was "no entangling alliances.". In relative terms, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, or Australia would have less immediate interests in Eastern Europe than France, Germany, or the United Kingdom would in East Asia. /e/entangling.htm - 6k NATOs Article 5 was invoked for the first time ever. A Secret Franco-Italian Alliance. US-led formal alliances are unique in that they involve both interests and ideals.78Bruno Tertrais, The Changing Nature of Military Alliances,The Washington Quarterly27, no. Such alliances provide stability and predictability in the international system. Still, drawing red linesthe essence of security guaranteesis a form of art.95On the notion of red lines, see Bruno Tertrais, The Diplomacy of Red Lines,Recherches & Documents, no. Entangling Alliances caused to many countries to involve in World War 1. . Historian Margaret MacMillan has published a lengthy report for the Brookings Institution exploring the "lessons of the Great War" and drawing parallels between the state of international affairs prior to WWI and today. Likewise, an improbable, but not farfetched, scenario calling for Washington to play a mediating role could involve South Korea and Japan. Composed of a bunch of puppet regimes in eastern Europe, the Warsaw Pact was an honorable sentry for Moscow's paranoid central planners. Brian Victoria, The Shifting US Position over the Senkaku Islands, East Asia Forum, November 13, 2020. Probably the most influential event that . The dawning multipolar world, featuring an increasingly dense network of security arrangements, uncomfortably reminds us of the years 1912- 1914, shortly before the outbreak of World War I. Declaration of the Sixteen Nations Relating to the Armistice, July 27, 1953. Tierney, Does Chain-Ganging Cause, 299. Where exactly does Article 42.7 of TEU apply? The government chooses its foreign affairs policy to safeguard the interests of the nation and its citizens. Likewise, in 2009, Stephen Walt wrote that the United States would rely more heavily on ad hoc coalitions and bilateral arrangements.5Stephen M. Walt, Alliances in a Unipolar World,World Politics61, no. While definitive judgments are impossible to make, arguments claiming that alliances are good for stability are convincing. And as with madness, it's unendurable alone. This report advocates for a US-India digital handshake to overcome substantive and institutional barriers in US-India digital economic cooperation. Finally, the Arab Leagues mutual defense commitment still exists on paper, though it has not proven very efficient since its signature in 1950.19Treaty of Joint Defense and Economic Cooperation between the States of the Arab League, June 17, 1950, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/ arabjoin.asp. June 9, 2015. iii. Economically, it has allowed the United States to set the rules of international trade and finance and, on balance, remain well positioned to reap the advantages of that system. The same goes for concepts such as an alliance of democracies once promoted by US President Joe Biden.11Joe Biden, Democracy in an Age of Authoritarianism, Remarks by then-Vice President Biden, Copenhagen Democracy Summit, June 22, 2018, https://www.allianceofdemocracies.org/speech-by-joe-biden/. Strive to have friends, for life without friends is like life on . Jun 20, 2022, By Europe in 1914 was an armed camp; its politics dominated by two rival alliances. The China-Russia relationship has turned into a near alliance, or at least a non-aggression pact la the Treaty of Rapallo (1922). They can range from financial or logistic . Neither Israel nor the United States was ever interested in forging a true defense pact. Two additional arguments will make this clearer. Jesse C. Johnson and Brett Ashley Leeds, Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace?,. 130, NATO Defense College, April 2016. Those forged by the Soviet Union have disappeared. There is solid academic evidence that such alliances do reduce the risk of war.84Jesse C. Johnson and Brett Ashley Leeds, Defense Pacts: A Prescription for Peace?,Foreign Policy Analysis7, no. Definition: complex web of alliances that forced countries to fight each other if needed/called upon. "It is our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliance with any portion of the foreign world." Farewell Address to the People of the United States | Monday, September 19, 1796 #foreign policy #government. The Roots of World War I and the Risk of US-China Conflict(Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press, 2014). alliances and partnerships in its grand strategy more generally. Since 1996, US officials have made it clear that the contested Senkaku islands (called Diaoyu by China) were covered by the US-Japan security treaty. Article 42.7 no longer binds the United Kingdom, which has left the EU. This is what political scientist Glenn Snyder called the halo effect of alliances.82Glenn Herald Snyder,Alliance Politics(Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1997), 8. Image: Soldiers stand near their armoured vehicles during Defender Europe 2022 military exercise of NATO troops including French, American, and Polish troops, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine, at the military range in Bemowo Piskie, near Orzysz, Poland May 24, 2022. As Lanoszka explains, entrapment is a self-denying prophecy.109Lanoszka,Military Alliances, 51. In 2012, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey instituted a strategic partnership that includes a military dimension.65Zaur Shiriyev, Institutionalizing a Trilateral Strategic Partnership: Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, Policy Paper, 2016, https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=cd257d1b-df92-5184-9ad4-2a5dd95c0886&groupId=252038. Walt calls an alliance a formal or informal arrangement for security cooperation between two or more sovereign states.13Stephen M. Walt,The Origins of Alliances(Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1987), 12. In aggregate, the . The causes of World War I have been debated since it endedbut the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand was an early catalyst. Meanwhile, NATO would have to guard against opportunism by Russia. . This was made clear by the ICJs rulings: an accumulation of minor events could be tantamount to an armed attack.98Zemanek, Armed Attack. (NATO adopted it in 2021 for cyberattacks and there is thus no reason why it could not use it also for militia attacks.99Brussels Summit Communiqu Issued by the Heads of State and Government Participating in the North Atlantic Council in Brussels.) The problem with this notion, which is also applicable to any escalation scenario starting with a minor incident, is that there is no obvious threshold for declaring that security guarantees are at play. This definition of alliance also excludes collective security organizations such as the Organization for the Security and Co-operation in . Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig, and Jonas Parello-Plesner. An Iran contingency could very well draw Europe into conflict given that Tehrans missiles can reach a significant part of the continent, which is the primary rationale behind NATOs deployment of ballistic missile defense. See Breffni ORourke, Russia, Armenia Sign Extended Defense Pact, Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty, August 19, 2010. 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